THE QUANT PHILOSOPHER

Essays

The log.

Notes from engineering a life — decision-making, probability, and signal over noise.

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Jun 1, 2026 · 2m Stop Overfitting Your Life The same error that ruins a trading model ruins a life: mistaking noise for signal, and rebuilding everything around the last data point.
#decision-making#statistics
May 24, 2026 · 2m The Discipline of Changing Your Mind Bayesian updating is not flip-flopping. It's the rule for moving your beliefs by exactly the weight of the evidence — no more, no less.
#probability#decision-making